Professors in the Geography Department at UCLA applied biogeographic models to the question of locating Osama Bin Laden in the Spring 2009.  Biogeographic models use known properties of plants and animals to predict how they will distribute themselves over space and over time.  These models were applied to publicly available satellite imagery. 

The particular models employed are called a “Distance-decay Theory” and “Island Biogeography Theory.”  They were employed because they are associated with the distribution of life and extinction. Distance-decay theory states that as one goes further away from a precise location, there is an exponential decline in the turnover of species and a lower probability of finding the same composition of species. The theory of island biogeography states that large and close islands will have higher immigration rates and support more species with lower extinction rates than small isolated islands.

These theories can be applied over varying spatial scales to posit bin Laden’s location based on his last reputed geographic location. Distance-decay theory would predict that he is closest to the point where he was last reported and, by extension, within a region that has a similar physical environment and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs). For instance, the further he moves from his last reported location into the more secular parts of Pakistan or into India, the greater the probability that he will find himself in different cultural surroundings, thereby increasing the probability of his being captured or eliminated. Island biogeographic theory predicts that bin Laden is in a larger town rather than a smaller and more isolated town where extinction rate would be higher. Finally, high-resolution analyses of a city can be undertaken to identify individual buildings that match bin Laden’s life history characteristics. For example, he reportedly has a small entourage of body guards, requiring a structure that contains at least three rooms.

Using these methods, the biogeographers not only identified a specific town in Pakistan in which Bin Laden is likely to be located, they identified three specific buildings in which he is likely to be located.  However, no national security agency has commented on whether they have applied this methodology or whether or not the professors were accurate.