Notes from: Raine, Lee and Barry Wellman. 2012. Networked: The New Social Operating System. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.

PART III: HOW TO OPERATE IN A NETWORKED WORLD, NOW AND IN THE FUTURE

CHAPTER 11 – THE FUTURE OF NETWORKED INDIVIDUALISM, NOW AND IN THE FUTURE

The Enablers of Future Trend: The “Laws” of Digital Development

• We do not know exactly what the future will bring.
  • Social construction rather than determinism.
  • Norman Augustine’s Second Law of Socioscience: “For every scientific (or engineering) action, there is an equal and opposite social reaction.”
• Connection of physical and virtual worlds (see Metaverse Roadmap).

The “Laws” of Digital Development:

• These “laws” forecast based on what has happened and what is expected to happen.
  1. The price-to-performance ratio of computing hardware will double every 18-24 months (Moore’s Law).
  2. The miniaturization of technology puts computing power into miniscule objects.
  3. The density of graphical displays doubles every two years (Nishimura’s Law, slide 14).
  4. Computer storage capacity has doubled every 23 months since 1956 (Kryder’s Law).
  • Improved file compression
  5. Doubling of available bandwidth every 2 years (or faster, according to Gilder’s Law).
  6. Internet connection speeds increasing by 50% every year (Nielsen’s Law).
  7. The number of possible wireless communications doubling every 2.5 years (Cooper’s Law).
  8. Internet and mobile networks will become more reliable.

Convergence of the Physical with the Digital

• Move from external networks like telephones to being engrossed with digital networks.
• Users will find more involvement with virtual worlds compelling, but many will integrate these computer networks into real life rather than being completely immersed in them.
• Ubiquitous computing – “the internet of things”.
  • Human-computer interaction where connected objects share information with each other and people.
  • People might interact with multiple computational systems without realizing it.
  • Smart appliances like Microsoft’s Surface (and this ;-).
    • Enhances both aspects of networked individualism.
      • Individualism – people can navigate their world through different information increasingly on their own.
        • Teach objects and technologies about their interests and personal data.
    • Networked – allow people to locate others who look for the same information or share similar paths of experience or digital exploration.
      • Easier to find experts and locate communities.
      • Easier for others to reach out to you.
• Active agents and the semantic web.
  • Active agents systematically find relevant information by searching for whole concepts.
  • Semantic web championed by World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee.
  • Data mining, social network analysis tools, social-computing studies, and user-generated folksonomies make the web easier to navigate.
    • Better algorithms in search engines.
    • User tagging.
• Augmented reality – layer networked information on top of people’s everyday perceptions of the world.
  • Physical and digital become more mutually informed.
  • Yellow first-down lines.
  • Urbanspoon – allows people to find bars and restaurants near them.
  • Google Glass.
• Mirror worlds – augment representations of physical spaces.
  • Make networked individuals more aware of each other’s physical environments.
  • Google Earth.
  • Google Street View.
• Virtual worlds – online “places” where all the content is graphically simulated.
  • Massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPG).
  • Second Life is the largest non-game virtual world (and this ;-).
  • Virtual Reality: channeling and controlling mental images (The Matrix?)(see Conway's Game of Life or this)
• Endocolonization
  • Not only surrounding ourselves with machines, we are internalizing them, too.
  • Pacemakers, artificial organs, psychopharmacology.
  • Brain wave control (cat ears)
  • Loss of the distinction between inside and outside.

Convergence of Social, Internet, and Mobile Networks

• Several technological innovations could further enhance the convergence of mobile and desktop internet networks:

1. Convergence of information and communication.
   • Social networking apps allow users to connect with and embed information-rich media.
   • Increasingly used to share information about the users’ interests with others
2. Networked selves become osmotic.
   • Networked individuals tend to view self with a core “me” that then creates “pseudopods” that respond to different persons, networks, and situations.
3. “Lifelogging”
   • Convergence of past experiences, current life, and future possibilities.
   • Hardware and software combined to capture, store, and integrate experiences.
     • Two main functions:
       • Serves as a kind of video recorder for a person’s life.
       • Enables collaborative sharing and aggregation of life experiences.
   • Fitbit tracks exercise and sleep activity and uploads this information to online communities.
   • Gmail ads are matched with message content.
   • iPhones capture and store all the places they have been for one year.
   • last.fm allows users to track the music they listen to.
   • Gordon Bell’s MyLifeBits project allows him to digitally search his own memory.
     • Total recall.
     • This never-blinking memory will change people’s notions of their identity and their role with others.
     • Because no life is without deviant behavior, how will this change our perception of deviance?
4. Privacy
   • Is the loss of privacy worth the benefits of the Internet and Mobile Revolutions?
   • Legal, commercial, and personal realms will need to change to accommodate privacy concerns.
     • Legal: legislators will be pressured to pass new laws and courts to apply new standards about how personal information can be used.
     • Commercial: firms will see opportunities to help people decide what aspects of their digital lives should remain hidden.
     • Personal: new norms will develop around how newly discovered information about others should be treated.
   • Security Risks from the Smart Home.
5. The assertion of national sovereignty online
   • Only a few countries block or severely limit the internet (ex. North Korea).
   • Not every government wants information to be free (see also).
   • 2011 – Egypt cuts internet off to quell revolt (disconnection only lasted a few days).
   • Blocking certain sites or information is more common:
     • China’s Golden Shield.
     • Don’t forget about the United States!

The New Logic of Personal Transparency and Connectedness

• Networked individuals must release information and social capital in order to acquire it.
  • In order to build a network, individuals must describe who they are, what talents and skills they possess, what they know, and what their needs are.
• People can most easily get help from their networks when they are connected and findable.
• The cost of more transparency and connectedness will be additional transparency and connectedness.
  • It will be increasingly harder to hide or disconnect.
  • Disclosures will occur more frequently without the individuals’ knowledge that information is being transmitted.
• Danger of a “filter bubble” which may surround networked individuals with information that only fits their “profiles.”

What will these trends lead to in the future?

Scenario 1: Even More Networked Individuals

• Hypothetical story of Harry’s morning:
  • Collaborative consumption is used when searching for new products.
  • Aggregates social media.
  • Updating and sharing lifelogs.
    • Able to guard privacy and online reputation.
  • Ubiquitous computing and objects.
  • Netsourcing through personal agents to access content gathered by his network.
  • Networks liberate individuals.
  • Real life and the digital world are merged.
  • Social interactions are dispersed.
  • Many connections are international.
  • Augmented reality allows medical treatment from a remote location.
  • ICTs allow a virtual tour of the restaurant Henry may be going to later during the day.
  • Networked individuals have tagged, commented on, and mashed up virtual spaces and avatars.

Scenario 2: A Walled and Surveilled World

• Hypothetical story of Will’s morning:
  • Unable to manage online reputation from incriminating information.
  • Uses limited online sources.
  • Does not own hardware, software, agents, or files.
  • Personal information and behavior are under scrutiny from government and other outsiders.
    • Also bought and sold by large corporations.
  • Networks bind individuals.
  • Greater risk of virus infections.
  • More gatekeepers guarding information.
  • Too many risks associated with using an agent.
  • People reduce their time spent online because of cost and fear.
  • Person-to-person interactions are preferred.
  • Files and information are often pirated.

The Possible Futures of Networked Individuals

• Scenario 1 assumes a move toward more networked individualism.
  • Continued technological progress and trust in computer and human networks
  • More transparency, fewer boundaries
• Scenario 2 assumes more boundaries, more costs, more corporate concentration, and more surveillance.

Networked Individuals ++

• The impact of ICT technology progressed in three stages:
  1. Substitution – new technology performs older technology’s tasks more efficiently.
  2. Enlargement – new technology is used to increase the volume and complexity of tasks that old technology used to perform.
  3. Reconfiguration – new technology changes the nature of the things it was created to address.
• The changes that came from the Triple Revolution will intensify and become more widespread:
  • More connected as individuals and less embedded in groups.
  • Needs will be met by spatially diverse and loosely knit networks.
  • Partial memberships in more milieus rather than permanent membership in settled groups.
• People’s online contributions will multiply and change character in both scenarios above.
• Relationships will increasingly be built around networks.
• Social networks will have a more vivid presence as they are carried around with individuals wherever they go.

Centrifugal and Centripetal Forces

• Scenario 1 shows an increase in both centrifugal and centripetal forces.
  • Centrifugal – more diverse interactions and information shared with outside individuals.
  • Centripetal – networked individuals find it easier to facilitate interactions in-person, as well as manage personal online reputation.
• Scenario 2 predicts an increase mainly in centripetal force.
• Fear of outsiders gaining information
• The internet is walled off and gated virtual communities are common.
• Common theme in post-apocalyptic literature (“A Canticle for Leibowit”, “Memoirs of a Survivor”, and “The Year of the Flood”) and movies (Mad Max 2, Terminator, Land of the Dead, and The Book of Eli).

Augmented Reality Augments, and Does Not Replace

• See discussion in the two scenarios presented above.

Digital Divides

• Scenario 1 predicts networked individuals transcend the digital divide.
• Scenario 2 shows a deeper economic divide that cuts many people off from having control over their digital lives.

Privacy and Digital Shadows

• Scenario 1 allows users to easily manage their online identity.
• Scenario 2 illustrates how governments and organizations can constantly scrutinize and monitor people’s online activities.
  • Humiliating information about people is easily accessible through automatic tagging, making it more difficult to build social capital.
  • People live in a state of “mutually assured humiliation.”
• Who controls the data, software, and hardware are important factors to consider.

The Future Will Be What It Will Be

• Four arenas for future issues:
  1. The internet itself – what it is and how its architecture functions.
  2. The legislative and legal realms – laws concerning privacy and intellectual property will shape who owns what, who shares what, and who pays for what in the future.
  3. The world of social norms and etiquette – where we figure out the social rules of engagement.
  4. The commercial technology realm – where people create the new tools that help shape what is possible for networked individuals.
• The Triple Revolution will change but never end.
• Individuals will be able to act more independently with greater power to shape their lives.
• Tightly knit, permanent groups will continue to be important for some, but social networks will play greater roles in all human activities.

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